Mon Aug-31 19:08:44
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2306 Mon Aug-10 20:20:15
What AI investors can learn from a decades-old cellphone
An opinion piece highlights the widening gap between hyperscaler AI capital expenditures and actual revenue, citing Meta's potential leasing of excess compute capacity as a sign of overbuilding.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.09% | -0.29% | 592.31 | 608.16 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.26% | +0.12% | 217.00 | 224.91 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.69% | +0.06% | 469.22 | 483.00 | |
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.08% | -0.07% | 498.56 | 512.60 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.99% | +0.10% | 273.60 | 279.78 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.78% | +0.14% | 420.62 | 432.43 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.70% | +0.14% | 417.84 | 425.04 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.27% | -0.14% | 353.59 | 357.73 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short META (other: An opinion piece highlights the widening gap between hyperscaler AI capital expenditures and actual revenue, citing Meta's potential leasing of excess compute capacity as a sign of overbuilding.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, netted, outranked by S1 long META mat 85 (new mat 65)] → close +0.43% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.26% · Δ 30m +0.12% · px 218.89 (prev 223.96) → close -0.61% |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (other: An opinion piece highlights the widening gap between hyperscaler AI capital expenditures and actual revenue, citing Meta's potential leasing of excess compute capacity as a sign of overbuilding.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 8808) for S4 META exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.