🚨 Alert #2199 Mon Aug-10 14:24:29
Reports indicate Apple is testing memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT for devices sold in China, raising competitive concerns for incumbent suppliers like Micron despite Micron's contractual protections.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short MU (other: Reports indicate Apple is testing memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT for devices sold in China, raising competitive concerns for incumbent suppliers like Micron despite Micron's contractual protections.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long MU decision 9109] |
| S2 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close -0.44% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short MU at close, exit next close (other: Reports indicate Apple is testing memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT for devices sold in China, raising competitive concerns for incumbent suppliers like Micron despite Micron's contractual protections.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 9112) for S4 MU exiting 2026-08-11] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ▼ short | 1 | 864.63 | 875.80 | -11.17 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU S1 | +0.30% | -3.36% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — the short never gained more than +0.30% unrealized while dropping as far as -3.36% against the position, so the bearish repricing didn't materialize after entry. Timing: The entry chased a move that had already partly occurred (stock was down -1.57% from prior close at decision time), which likely captured much of the CXMT-news repricing before the fill. Exit: The close was forced by netting against an opposing long decision, not by the strategy's own logic, but it exited at -1.29% versus a worst of -3.36% — better than the trough, and the +0.30% best available means essentially no profit was ever there to capture. Dominant factor: bad signal (or fully priced-in news) — the direction simply didn't play out post-entry; the data here can't distinguish whether the thesis was wrong or merely already reflected in the pre-entry drop. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.