🚨 Alert #21 Thu Jul-16 13:00:13
TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in US chipmaking capacity, bringing total US pledges to $265 billion, while raising its 2026 capex and revenue outlook amid strong AI-driven demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -4.94% | -0.23% | 398.04 | 415.14 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -12.32% | -0.24% | 830.40 | 877.23 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -6.59% | +0.02% | 492.08 | 516.11 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -4.63% | -0.41% | 24.62 | 26.59 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | PRICED | +4.39% | 0.00% | 327.18 | 335.00 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.29% | -0.10% | 169.18 | 174.90 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.20% | +0.04% | 205.56 | 210.73 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.77% | -0.13% | 372.51 | 388.50 | |
| peer ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.56% | +0.28% | 1765.85 | 1850.49 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.94% · Δ 30m -0.23% · px 399.62 (prev 420.39) → close +2.44% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.20% · Δ 30m +0.04% · px 209.25 (prev 211.80) → close -1.15% |
| S3 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy ASML (guidance: TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in US chipmaking capacity, bringing total US pledges to $265 billion, while raising its 2026 capex and revenue outlook amid strong AI-driven demand.) |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in US chipmaking capacity, bringing total US pledges to $265 billion, while raising its 2026 capex and revenue outlook amid strong AI-driven demand.) |
📈 Trades
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +0.52% | -5.59% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale bet on positive-news overnight drift from TSMC's capex/investment headlines, but the market had likely already priced the news in by the close — the trade never got more than +0.52% ahead and bled to a -2.8% loss with a -5.59% max drawdown, suggesting you bought a sentiment peak, not a drift setup. Improvement: Add a filter requiring the news to break after the prior close or intraday (so it isn't already reflected in the entry price), or require the stock to be flat-to-down on the day despite the good news before taking the overnight position. Alternatively, add a hard stop around -2% since a -5.6% adverse excursion on a "drift" thesis means the thesis was dead long before the exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.