🚨 Alert #208 Mon Jul-20 13:40:12
Taiwanese prosecutors have charged a former TSMC employee with stealing proprietary chip technology intended for use in China, marking a significant national security and intellectual property breach.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.32% | +0.13% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | +4.28% | +0.10% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | +2.83% | +0.29% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +2.76% | +0.34% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | +0.71% | +0.28% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.49% | +0.41% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | -0.38% | +0.16% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | FRESH | -0.25% | +0.07% | 23.83 | 24.95 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell TSM (regulatory: Taiwanese prosecutors have charged a former TSMC employee with stealing proprietary chip technology intended for use in China, marking a significant national security and intellectual property breach.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -1.51% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: sell TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: Taiwanese prosecutors have charged a former TSMC employee with stealing proprietary chip technology intended for use in China, marking a significant national security and intellectual property breach.) |
📈 Trades
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +1.64% | -5.82% | Entry vs. outcome: The short thesis assumed a regulatory/IP-theft headline would drive overnight selling, but the market correctly treated a single employee prosecution as immaterial to TSM's fundamentals—the stock rallied 5.7% against the position, and the trade never got more than +1.64% in the money while bleeding to -5.82% at the worst. The headline was noise, not a driver. Improvement: Add a materiality filter to the entry rule—only short on regulatory news that directly threatens revenue, capacity, or export licenses (e.g., sanctions, fab restrictions), and require price confirmation (stock down intraday on the news) before entry; a headline the market shrugged off by the close is already priced in or irrelevant. Alternatively, a hard stop at -2% would have cut this loss by more than half. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.