Mon Aug-31 19:03:20
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #206 Mon Jul-20 13:30:21
The Trade Is Not "Sell AI"
Despite TSMC reporting strong revenue and guidance, the semiconductor sector faces a bearish repricing due to macroeconomic contradictions involving cooling CPI and surging oil prices.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.27% | -0.02% | 390.66 | 409.60 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.37% | -0.47% | 859.68 | 900.06 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.66% | +0.05% | 502.09 | 525.31 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.64% | +0.02% | 170.05 | 176.17 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.68% | +0.14% | 202.33 | 207.26 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.52% | -0.08% | 374.54 | 383.41 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.38% | -0.07% | 1730.44 | 1791.62 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.24% | -0.34% | 23.83 | 24.95 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for TSM → close -1.49% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell NVDA (other: Despite TSMC reporting strong revenue and guidance, the semiconductor sector faces a bearish repricing due to macroeconomic contradictions involving cooling CPI and surging oil prices.) |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for TSM |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▼ short | 4 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.