Mon Aug-31 20:08:28
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1999 Wed Aug-05 20:20:16
$1.3 trillion vanished from chip stocks in days and demand never fell
Semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, TSMC, and Micron lost over $1.3 trillion in market value due to investor concerns about AI spending ROI despite strong underlying demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.64% | +0.03% | 215.00 | 222.10 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.00% | -0.13% | 471.65 | 499.71 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.79% | +0.01% | 871.80 | 928.68 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.48% | +0.42% | 156.30 | 162.68 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.45% | -0.43% | 30.02 | 31.69 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.94% | +0.20% | 414.40 | 426.25 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.70% | +0.34% | 1673.00 | 1724.90 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.23% | +0.35% | 411.00 | 425.46 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.64% · Δ 30m +0.03% · px 221.77 (prev 211.94) → close -0.69% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.00% · Δ 30m -0.13% · px 487.45 (prev 518.58) → close -0.60% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.64% · Δ 30m +0.03% · px 221.77 (prev 211.94) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.