Mon Aug-31 19:05:54
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1845 Tue Aug-04 18:30:31
AI data-centre race builds $1 trillion lease burden for Big Tech
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed approximately $1.09 trillion in future lease payments for AI data centers that have not yet begun, raising concerns about potential overcapacity and balance sheet risks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.52% | +0.14% | 475.61 | 498.91 | |
| PLTR | · unclear | PRICED | +29.16% | -0.22% | 143.62 | 164.00 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | +9.85% | +0.23% | 29.18 | 31.80 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | +6.88% | +0.60% | 398.53 | 421.83 | |
| ASML | · unclear | PRICED | +3.47% | +0.03% | 1681.28 | 1717.09 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | +3.19% | +0.43% | 412.52 | 419.81 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | +2.28% | +0.32% | 208.89 | 216.89 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.93% | +0.13% | 276.40 | 280.96 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.08% | +0.23% | 366.39 | 380.31 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.40% | +1.22% | 575.50 | 592.28 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.52% · Δ 30m +0.14% · px 495.08 (prev 487.65) → close -0.51% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.42% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.52% · Δ 30m +0.14% · px 495.08 (prev 487.65) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.