Mon Aug-31 19:01:48
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #178 Fri Jul-17 20:30:17
Stocks Slip Before the Open as Chipmakers Extend Slide, U.S. Retail Sales Data and Earnings on Tap
TSMC reported record earnings and raised full-year revenue guidance, but its shares fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading as broader semiconductor stocks extended their slide amid concerns over AI trade valuations.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.70% | +0.47% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.07% | -0.12% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.74% | -0.32% | 808.10 | 902.11 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.41% | -0.06% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.72% | -0.04% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.61% | -0.16% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.50% | -0.24% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.16% | +0.12% | 165.27 | 172.45 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.70% · Δ 30m +0.47% · px 398.68 (prev 409.74) → close -0.10% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.07% · Δ 30m -0.12% · px 203.10 (prev 207.40) → close +0.19% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported record earnings and raised full-year revenue guidance, but its shares fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading as broader semiconductor stocks extended their slide amid concerns over AI trade valuations.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.