Mon Aug-31 19:06:07
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1653 Mon Aug-03 15:10:43
Asian Stocks Are Down 10% From June Highs. That Could Be Bad News for This Semiconductor Index.
Semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML are experiencing a global sell-off driven by investor concerns that AI hyperscalers may reduce capital expenditure on data center infrastructure.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.95% | +3.03% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.58% | +1.09% | 777.38 | 840.85 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.62% | +0.41% | 376.04 | 392.45 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.69% | -0.20% | 143.27 | 152.20 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.22% | +1.52% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.66% | -0.36% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.63% | +0.44% | 1592.04 | 1654.25 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.60% | +0.81% | 27.75 | 28.90 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | primary short contradicts tape: NVDA +1.95% since prev close → close +0.74% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +3.04% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short NVDA at close, exit next close (other: Semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML are experiencing a global sell-off driven by investor concerns that AI hyperscalers may reduce capital expenditure on data center infrastructure.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 75 short (decision 6460) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-04] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.