🚨 Alert #1552 Fri Jul-31 16:40:46
Global markets and AI stocks rebounded sharply after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, validating heavy AI infrastructure spending.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.72% | +1.41% | 447.95 | 465.86 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +13.21% | -1.28% | 259.40 | 272.46 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -9.34% | -0.21% | 300.32 | 309.72 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -5.74% | -2.23% | 812.48 | 926.39 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +4.94% | -0.26% | 337.16 | 357.61 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.89% | +0.18% | 146.24 | 155.18 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.32% | -0.68% | 540.82 | 557.98 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.82% | +0.05% | 399.15 | 421.17 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.76% | -0.48% | 195.33 | 201.78 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.76% | -0.52% | 472.12 | 514.65 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.06% | +0.11% | 380.52 | 397.37 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Global markets and AI stocks rebounded sharply after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, validating heavy AI infrastructure spending.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Global markets and AI stocks rebounded sharply after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, validating heavy AI infrastructure spending.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-07-31] → close +2.66% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Global markets and AI stocks rebounded sharply after Microsoft reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, validating heavy AI infrastructure spending.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+3.24% since close, 254m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 459.70 | 466.21 | +13.02 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | +1.47% | -0.07% | Signal: Right — the bullish call played out; price rose steadily after entry with essentially no adverse excursion (worst −0.07%). Timing: Entry came after a chase — MSFT was already ~+1.9% above prior close at fill (459.70 vs 451.10) following the earnings pop — but enough continuation remained that this cost opportunity, not correctness. Exit: Near-perfect capture — the +1.42% realized gain matches the +1.47% best unrealized almost exactly. Dominant factor: Correct signal with clean execution; the only real leakage was entering after ~2% of the post-earnings move had already occurred, and the data here can't tell us how much pre-entry upside was foregone. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.