verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy AAPL (m&a: Apple is reportedly seeking to acquire AI chip companies to reduce reliance on Nvidia and enhance on-device AI capabilities for the iPhone.)
overnight drift: buy AAPL at close, exit next close (m&a: Apple is reportedly seeking to acquire AI chip companies to reduce reliance on Nvidia and enhance on-device AI capabilities for the iPhone.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AAPL exiting 2026-07-20]
The entry treated a vague "reportedly seeking to acquire" rumor as a REPRICING event, but rumor-stage M&A chatter rarely reprices a mega-cap like Apple materially — and the outcome confirms it: a +1.0% drift that barely exceeded the +1.19% max favorable excursion, i.e., noise-level movement, not a repricing. The trade won, but for reasons indistinguishable from random AAPL beta, so don't let the small gain validate the rule. Concrete fix: require confirmed/announced deals (or named targets with deal terms) for a REPRICING verdict; downgrade unsourced "seeking/considering" headlines to WATCH or require a materiality screen (estimated deal size vs. market cap — a chip startup acquisition is a rounding error against Apple's ~$3T valuation).
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
