Mon Aug-31 20:13:43
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1525 Fri Jul-31 14:32:04
Semiconductor stocks fall despite record profits
Semiconductor stocks including TSMC and Nvidia are selling off despite record profits due to investor concerns that AI demand has peaked and fears of emerging competition from China.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.04% | +0.72% | 399.15 | 421.17 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +11.40% | +1.09% | 27.36 | 28.78 | |
| peer AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.19% | +1.63% | 472.12 | 514.65 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +5.17% | +1.75% | 812.48 | 926.39 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.01% | +0.66% | 1622.50 | 1691.03 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.83% | +0.93% | 380.52 | 397.37 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.81% | +0.87% | 195.33 | 201.78 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.92% | -0.78% | 146.24 | 155.18 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.04% · Δ 30m +0.72% · px 419.55 (prev 403.27) → close -3.34% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.19% · Δ 30m +1.63% · px 510.60 (prev 485.39) → close -5.51% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.04% · Δ 30m +0.72% · px 419.55 (prev 403.27) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.