verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (partnership: China's Moonshot has secured a deal with Alibaba for 20,000 Nvidia chips, indicating sustained demand for Nvidia's hardware in the Chinese market.)
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (partnership: China's Moonshot has secured a deal with Alibaba for 20,000 Nvidia chips, indicating sustained demand for Nvidia's hardware in the Chinese market.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 6296) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-03]
Signal: correct. The bullish call played out — NVDA rose ~1.9% from entry to exit. Timing: partially late. The stock was already up 1.81% on the day at decision time, so some of the news-driven repricing was consumed before entry (entry at 197.73 vs. prev close 195.04), but meaningful upside remained, so the chase wasn't fatal. Exit: near-optimal. The +1.94% realized gain captured almost all of the +2.06% best unrealized, against a modest -1.29% worst drawdown. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal with a well-timed exit; the only cost was the ~1.4% of the move given up by entering after the initial pop.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
