Mon Aug-31 19:05:51
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1399 Thu Jul-30 17:50:18
AMD Fell 8% as China Unveils New Technology -- the Real Risk Is the Multiple, Not the Lithography
China's announcement of domestic immersion DUV lithography technology triggered an 8% sell-off in AMD and ASML shares due to fears of reduced reliance on Western semiconductor equipment.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +12.60% | -0.43% | 440.89 | 499.88 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +15.49% | -1.10% | 747.00 | 910.99 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +7.92% | -0.79% | 26.27 | 28.40 | |
| counterparty TSM | · unclear | PRICED | +7.36% | -0.41% | 381.99 | 412.77 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +6.26% | -0.67% | 1599.38 | 1684.28 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.77% | -0.20% | 192.16 | 197.05 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.63% | -0.15% | 146.00 | 153.87 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +12.60% · Δ 30m -0.43% · px 483.69 (prev 429.56) → close +0.23% |
| S2 | TSM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for TSM → close +0.24% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.77% · Δ 30m -0.20% · px 193.37 (prev 190.01) → close +0.73% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +12.60% · Δ 30m -0.43% · px 483.69 (prev 429.56) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.