Mon Aug-31 19:07:36
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1360 Thu Jul-30 16:33:27
CoreWeave CDS Hits 50% Default Odds: Bond Market Calls Time on GPU Debt Spiral
Credit default swap markets are pricing a 50% probability of default for AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave, signaling significant distress in the neocloud sector that could impact major GPU suppliers and cloud partners.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +13.83% | -0.44% | 425.60 | 458.17 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +12.53% | -1.16% | 440.89 | 499.88 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.98% | -0.92% | 526.00 | 544.23 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +8.23% | -0.87% | 26.27 | 28.40 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.37% | -0.23% | 232.55 | 258.50 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +3.47% | -0.57% | 374.22 | 391.00 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.86% | -0.86% | 192.16 | 197.05 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.57% | -0.32% | 331.43 | 337.96 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: NVDA +1.86% since prev close → close +0.64% |
| S4 | - | ○ skip | — | no primary ticker in universe |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.