🚨 Alert #128 Fri Jul-17 17:00:22

The entry chased headline good news that the market had almost certainly priced in already — a record quarter and capex hike from TSMC is consensus-confirming, not a repricing catalyst — and the trade never worked, with max favorable excursion of just +0.13% against -2.37% adverse before a -1.4% loss. That MFE/MAE profile says the entry was late, buying strength after the news pop rather than an actual mispricing. Concrete fix: require the REPRICING verdict to include a check that the post-news move is small relative to the surprise (e.g., skip the trade if the stock already gapped/ran >X% on the announcement), or only enter bullish repricing trades on a pullback toward the pre-news level rather than at the highs.

Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was second-order sympathy logic — TSMC's strong report and capex hike were read as a bullish repricing for ASML — but the market never validated it: max favorable excursion was a trivial +0.29% while drawdown hit -2.27%, ending in a -1.87% loss. This is a classic case of buying a name on news that likely was already priced in (or partially priced) by the time the trade triggered, since TSMC capex expectations are well-telegraphed and ASML often "sells the news" on supplier sympathy plays.

Concrete fix: Tighten the REPRICING verdict to require the traded ticker itself to confirm — e.g., only enter if ASML gaps/moves +1% or more in the direction of the thesis within the first hour after the catalyst; a sympathy thesis with zero price confirmation in the actual instrument should downgrade to NO-TRADE or a smaller size tier.