Mon Aug-31 19:07:43
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1213 Wed Jul-29 19:40:34
TSMC Stock Drops 4.1% as $2 Trillion AI Rout Spreads
TSMC shares declined 4.1% amid a broader Asian semiconductor selloff driven by leveraged position unwinding and concerns over AI spending returns, despite the company reporting record quarterly profits and raising capital expenditure guidance.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.37% | +0.30% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.29% | -0.48% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.10% | -0.31% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.84% | +0.63% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.23% | +0.46% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.41% | +0.38% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.19% | +0.10% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.05% | +0.24% | 364.85 | 384.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.37% · Δ 30m +0.30% · px 386.92 (prev 392.31) → close -3.10% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.23% · Δ 30m +0.46% · px 194.58 (prev 197.01) → close -2.03% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.37% · Δ 30m +0.30% · px 386.92 (prev 392.31) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.