Mon Aug-31 19:09:00
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1212 Wed Jul-29 19:33:47
Microsoft Stock Rises as Options Price $190 Billion Earnings Swing
Options markets are pricing a significant $190 billion potential swing in Microsoft's market value ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, reflecting heightened investor focus on Azure growth and AI capital expenditures.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | · unclear | PRICED | +1.38% | +0.46% | 389.74 | 425.60 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.12% | +0.13% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| peer GOOGL | · unclear | PRICED | +1.89% | +0.10% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -1.85% | +0.14% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | +0.26% | -0.15% | 224.70 | 232.52 | |
| META | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.04% | -0.64% | 521.74 | 599.09 |
🧭 Decisions
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.