🚨 Alert #1140 Wed Jul-29 14:20:58
Meta shares have declined for nine consecutive days ahead of its Q2 earnings report as investors express concern over rising capital expenditure plans following similar warnings from Alphabet.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short META (earnings: Meta shares have declined for nine consecutive days ahead of its Q2 earnings report as investors express concern over rising capital expenditure plans following similar warnings from Alphabet.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.25% |
| S4 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (earnings: Meta shares have declined for nine consecutive days ahead of its Q2 earnings report as investors express concern over rising capital expenditure plans following similar warnings from Alphabet.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 590.41 | 582.70 | +7.71 | closed |
| S4 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 582.68 | 539.47 | +43.21 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +1.29% | -1.57% | Signal: Correct — the bearish call played out, with META falling from 590.41 to 582.70 while the trade was open. Timing: Questionable on its face — entering short after nine consecutive down days risks chasing an exhausted move, and the trade did go -1.57% underwater at its worst — but the data here shows the decline continued anyway, so the entry wasn't too late in this instance. Exit: Near-perfect — the +7.71 realized (~+1.31%) actually exceeds the +1.29% best unrealized mark, meaning the exit captured essentially everything available. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal harvested with an optimal exit; the main blemish is the meaningful adverse excursion before the move resumed. |
| META S4 | +11.01% | -0.74% | Signal: Right — the short earnings thesis played out, with META falling ~7.4% from entry (582.68 → 539.47) for +$43.21. Timing: The fill at 582.68 was already ~1.9% below the prior close of 593.87, so a slice of the move happened before entry — but the vast majority of the decline came while the position was open, so timing was not a material drag. Exit: The next-close exit captured ~7.4% against a best unrealized of +11.01% (worst only -0.74%), leaving roughly a third of the peak move uncaptured. Dominant factor: a correct, well-timed signal; the exit gave back some of the maximum available gain but still banked most of the move. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.