🚨 Alert #1139 Wed Jul-29 14:12:27
Tesla reported Q2 2026 revenue of $28.2 billion, crossing the $100 billion trailing twelve-month milestone, but operating income fell 57% year-over-year to $398 million.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 revenue of $28.2 billion, crossing the $100 billion trailing twelve-month milestone, but operating income fell 57% year-over-year to $398 million.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla reported Q2 2026 revenue of $28.2 billion, crossing the $100 billion trailing twelve-month milestone, but operating income fell 57% year-over-year to $398 million.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (-3.13% since close, 402m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 3 | 305.51 | 297.76 | +23.25 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +2.53% | -0.66% | Signal: Correct — the bearish call on collapsing operating income played out; the short gained 2.5%. Timing: Mostly fine — only -0.68% had moved since prior close at decision time (and flat over the prior 30m), though the fill at 305.51 was ~1.2% below prior close, so a modest slice of the move preceded entry. Exit: Near-perfect — the +2.53% best unrealized versus a realized +2.54% (7.75 points on entry 305.51) means the exit captured essentially everything available, with minimal adverse excursion (-0.66%). Dominant factor: a correct signal with a well-timed exit — this trade worked as intended on all three dimensions. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.