Mon Aug-31 19:03:21
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1127 Wed Jul-29 13:42:05
TAIEX holds above 40,000 as losses continue | Taiwan News | Jul. 29, 2026 20:30
Taiwan's benchmark TAIEX index fell 3.76% with TSMC dropping 3.51% as investors reassess AI investment returns.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.77% | -0.31% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.35% | -0.66% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.81% | -0.85% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.90% | -0.50% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.12% | -0.81% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.09% | -0.15% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.91% | -0.46% | 364.85 | 384.61 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.03% | -0.27% | 188.89 | 197.56 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.77% · Δ 30m -0.31% · px 388.02 (prev 399.09) → close -3.37% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (other: Taiwan's benchmark TAIEX index fell 3.76% with TSMC dropping 3.51% as investors reassess AI investment returns.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long NVDA decision 4889] |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.77% · Δ 30m -0.31% · px 388.02 (prev 399.09) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▼ short | 5 | 195.74 | 193.18 | +12.80 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S3 | +2.52% | -0.62% | Signal was right: the bearish call played out, with the short reaching +2.52% unrealized against only -0.62% adverse. Timing was fine — NVDA was roughly flat vs. prior close at decision time (+0.03%, entry ~0.4% below prev close), so the move had not already happened. The dominant factor is the exit: the trade was closed early by being netted against an opposing long decision, not by any price signal, capturing +1.31% (+$12.80) of a +2.52% peak — roughly half of what was available was left on the table by the mechanical netting, though whether the peak came before or after the forced close isn't determinable from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.