🚨 Alert #993 Tue Jul-28 15:02:08
Apple and Micron are in a dispute over Apple's potential sourcing of memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, with Micron lobbying US officials to block the move to protect domestic manufacturing.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AAPL | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.18% | -0.77% | 335.94 | 341.25 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -9.95% | -3.65% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -8.56% | -3.02% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -3.59% | -0.58% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -2.67% | +0.18% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.29% | -0.55% | 193.21 | 198.53 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short AAPL (regulatory: Apple and Micron are in a dispute over Apple's potential sourcing of memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, with Micron lobbying US officials to block the move to protect domestic manufacturing.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long AAPL decision 3993] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +1.92% |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short AAPL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Apple and Micron are in a dispute over Apple's potential sourcing of memory chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, with Micron lobbying US officials to block the move to protect domestic manufacturing.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 4376) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-07-29] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ▼ short | 2 | 337.65 | 337.92 | -0.54 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S1 | +0.48% | -0.05% | Signal: Right — the bearish call played out, with the short reaching +0.48% unrealized while open, so the downside move came after entry rather than being already spent. Exit (dominant factor): The trade was closed not by its own logic but by being netted out against an outranking S1 long, and it exited near the worst unrealized point (-0.08% vs. -0.05% worst), giving back the entire +0.48% that was available. Bottom line: A correct directional call was converted into a small loss purely by the forced early close from the netting mechanism — the exit captured essentially the worst of what the position saw. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.