Mon Aug-31 19:04:53
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #846 Mon Jul-27 15:10:32
ASML and U.S. chip stocks sink on report of China's DUV breakthrough
ASML and U.S. semiconductor stocks declined following a report that a Chinese company has achieved mass production of domestic immersion DUV lithography machines, threatening ASML's market monopoly and undermining potential U.S. export restrictions.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.78% | -1.42% | 1617.08 | 1809.26 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.12% | -3.03% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.53% | -3.91% | 858.59 | 947.60 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.32% | -0.98% | 195.52 | 208.69 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.43% | -3.07% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.29% | -1.16% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.28% | +0.14% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.10% | -0.82% | 375.12 | 391.58 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.78% · Δ 30m -1.42% · px 1673.05 (prev 1757.09) → close -1.22% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.32% · Δ 30m -0.98% · px 202.04 (prev 206.84) → close -2.53% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.78% · Δ 30m -1.42% · px 1673.05 (prev 1757.09) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.