Sun Oct-18 16:23:32
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #834 Mon Jul-27 14:20:38
China begins limited production of homegrown immersion DUV lithography machines
China has begun limited production of domestic immersion DUV lithography machines, challenging ASML's monopoly and potentially impacting the global semiconductor supply chain.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.67% | -2.49% | 1617.08 | 1809.26 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -5.31% | 0.00% | 858.59 | 947.60 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.80% | -0.28% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -1.33% | -0.32% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.05% | -0.67% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | FRESH | -0.88% | -0.35% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | -0.78% | -0.33% | 375.12 | 391.58 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.23% | -0.05% | 195.52 | 208.69 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.67% · Δ 30m -2.49% · px 1754.87 (prev 1803.00) → close -5.82% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -5.45% |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.67% · Δ 30m -2.49% · px 1754.87 (prev 1803.00) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.