🚨 Alert #827 Mon Jul-27 13:50:48

Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The bullish partnership call never materialized — the stock topped out at just +0.33% unrealized before sliding to -4.92%, so the direction was simply incorrect over the holding period. Timing: the move hadn't already happened — price was flat-to-down at decision time (-0.18% since prev close), and notably the fill at 205.6 was already ~1.5% below the prior close of 208.76, suggesting weakness before entry rather than a missed run-up. Exit: the -4.19% realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-4.92%), so the exit gave back nearly the maximum drawdown available and captured none of the (minimal) upside — but with a wrong-direction signal, exit quality is secondary to the failed thesis.

Signal: Right — the long drifted up and the trade closed +0.44%, so the predicted direction held over the holding period. Timing: Can't be settled from this data — the entry fill (196.84) sits ~5.7% below the stated prev close (208.76), while decision-time context showed only -0.18%, an unexplained discrepancy (likely a large gap or data mismatch) that makes it impossible to say whether the news-driven move had already occurred by entry. Exit: Reasonable capture — the mechanical next-close exit banked +0.44% of a +0.86% max, roughly half of what was available, and importantly rode through a -1.99% drawdown to get there.

Dominant factor: the signal worked, but the trade spent time nearly 2% underwater — the positive outcome owed as much to holding through the drawdown as to the thesis, and the entry-price/prev-close inconsistency should be resolved before crediting the rationale.