🚨 Alert #7610 Thu Oct-15 20:20:13
ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors - AOL
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long ASML (earnings: ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors - AOL) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long ASML exiting 2026-10-15] → close +0.16% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MU | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors - AOL) |
| S4 | ASML | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investors - AOL) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 88 long (decision 30416) for S4 ASML exiting 2026-10-16] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | MU | ▲ long | 1 | 922.58 | 926.61 | +4.03 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU S3 | +0.80% | -0.15% | Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out, with price rising ~0.44% from entry and never drawing down more than 0.15% while open. Timing: Partially late — at decision time MU was already +0.86% on the day and +1.72% in the prior 30 minutes, and the fill at 922.58 was +0.92% above the prior close, so roughly half of the total move observed here had occurred before entry. However, the position still went +0.80% further, so this was a chase that happened to keep working, not a stale signal. Exit: Captured +0.44% of a +0.80% best unrealized, i.e. about 55% of the available upside; what triggered the exit (time, target, trailing stop) isn't stated, so whether leaving the other ~0.36% was discipline or sloppiness can't be settled from this data. The dominant factor is a correct signal with a modest-size move; the only real leak is giving back nearly half the peak gain at exit. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.