verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy QCOM (other: Qualcomm has informed customers it will raise processor prices by double digits to offset rising costs.)
overnight drift: buy QCOM at close, exit next close (other: Qualcomm has informed customers it will raise processor prices by double digits to offset rising costs.)
The entry treated a price-hike announcement as automatically bullish "repricing," but supplier price increases can just as easily signal margin pressure or demand destruction — the market clearly didn't read it as pure upside, and the trade never got more than +0.24% in your favor before bleeding to -1.67%. The max-favorable/max-adverse asymmetry suggests the thesis was dead on arrival, not just early. Concrete fix: require price-hike news to be paired with confirmation (e.g., positive intraday relative strength vs. SOX/SPY at entry, or a stated demand/pricing-power catalyst) before assigning bullish REPRICING; a cost-pass-through headline alone should default to NEUTRAL.
Signal: right — the long call paid off, with the stock rising +2.27% from entry to exit. Timing: fine — price had actually declined into entry (-1.48% since prior close, still falling in the last 30 minutes), so the anticipated move had not already occurred; the strategy bought into weakness rather than chasing. Exit: the mechanical next-close exit captured +2.27% of a +3.51% peak unrealized gain, giving back roughly a third of the available move but comfortably clearing the tiny -0.38% worst drawdown — the dominant factor here is simply a correct signal with reasonable timing, and the exit leaving some upside on the table is the only meaningful shortfall.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
