overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (guidance: Europe midday: ASML-led tech rally helps boost Stoxx) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 79 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 29920) for S4 ASML exiting 2026-10-15]
Signal was wrong: the rationale called a bullish repricing on NVDA off an ASML-led European tech rally, but the stock fell about 1.8% from entry to exit and never got more than +0.25% above the fill, so the predicted direction simply didn't materialize. Timing wasn't the issue in the "move already happened" sense — NVDA was down ~1% on the day and sliding in the last 30 minutes, meaning the entry was buying into weakness rather than chasing a prior up-move, though whether the ASML news was already priced in can't be determined from this data. Exit was reasonable given what was available: the -1.83% realized sits well off the -2.50% worst unrealized and the +0.25% best was never meaningful, so the dominant factor is a bad directional read, not execution.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
