verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AMD (earnings: Dow Climbs Nearly 300 Points as UnitedHealth Surges; Chip Sell-Off and JPMorgan Miss Weigh on Wall Street) [closed early: netted out by outranking S2 long AMD decision 29434]
Signal: Partially vindicated but unsettled — AMD did trade down to +0.88% in the short's favor at some point, but it finished above entry, and because the position was force-closed early we can't tell whether the bearish call would have held over its intended horizon. Timing: Entry at 590.0 was already ~0.7% below the 594.24 prior close with the "chip sell-off" headline out, so some of the move was priced in, though the subsequent dip to ~584.8 shows there was still downside available. Exit (dominant factor): The close wasn't a signal decision at all — the short was netted out by an outranking S2 long AMD order at 593.3, essentially the worst point of the trade (-0.59% vs. the -0.56% realized), surrendering the entire +0.88% that had been on the table; the loss is a product of the two strategies' conflicting positions, not of the bearish thesis failing.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
