🚨 Alert #693 Fri Jul-24 14:12:32
A US government agency withdrew a bid to improve a military intelligence system following a protest from Palantir Technologies.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy PLTR (regulatory: A US government agency withdrew a bid to improve a military intelligence system following a protest from Palantir Technologies.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | PLTR | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy PLTR at close, exit next close (regulatory: A US government agency withdrew a bid to improve a military intelligence system following a protest from Palantir Technologies.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 buy lost to mat 65 buy (decision 2896) for S4 PLTR exiting 2026-07-27] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ▲ long | 8 | 123.76 | 122.86 | -7.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR S1 | +0.74% | -1.28% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale stretched a procedural non-event (agency withdrawing a bid after Palantir's protest) into a "REPRICING" verdict, but nothing about a protest resolution implies new revenue or contract wins — and the market agreed, with the stock never moving more than +0.74% in your favor before drifting to a -0.9% loss. This was noise classified as signal. Improvement: Tighten the REPRICING threshold to require the catalyst to have a quantifiable financial impact (e.g., announced contract value, guidance change, or regulatory decision that directly gates revenue); procedural/legal process updates without dollar figures should cap out at a "WATCH" verdict with no trade. Alternatively, add a filter rejecting entries where the causal chain from headline to earnings requires more than one inferential step. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.