Mon Aug-31 19:01:50
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #69 Fri Jul-17 14:10:22
Chinese startup Moonshot closes in on Anthropic with world's largest open-weight AI model, Kimi K3
Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-weight AI model that challenges U.S. competitors, while reports indicate Alphabet's Gemini launch is delayed due to performance shortcomings.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.07% | -0.47% | 334.74 | 350.26 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.35% | -0.23% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.90% | +0.01% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.86% | -0.52% | 626.66 | 655.30 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.10% | -0.76% | 244.00 | 249.74 | |
| peer MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.64% | -0.29% | 389.60 | 396.89 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -7.07% · Δ 30m -0.47% · px 344.68 (prev 370.92) → close +0.57% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell MSFT (product: Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-weight AI model that challenges U.S. competitors, while reports indicate Alphabet's Gemini launch is delayed due to performance shortcomings.) |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: sell GOOGL at close, exit next close (product: Chinese startup Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-weight AI model that challenges U.S. competitors, while reports indicate Alphabet's Gemini launch is delayed due to performance shortcomings.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 sell GOOGL exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | MSFT | ▼ short | 2 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.