kingfisher — alert #6819

🚨 Alert #6819 Thu Oct-08 13:00:25

TSMC Q3 2026 revenue hits record on AI chip demand

qz.com · Thu Oct-08 12:45:21 published · Thu Oct-08 13:00:25 alerted · alerted 15m after publish · read at qz.com ↗ · earnings · mat 82

TSMC Q3 2026 revenue hits record on AI chip demand

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-1.56%	-0.13%	454.40	470.38
NVDA	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.98%	-0.09%	230.01	236.94
counterparty AAPL	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.10%	+0.11%	336.36	341.45

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	○ skip	—	primary long contradicts tape: TSM -1.56% since prev close → close -1.75%
S2	AAPL	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (earnings: TSMC Q3 2026 revenue hits record on AI chip demand)
S3	-	○ skip	—	no peer in universe
S4	TSM	○ skip	—	overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC Q3 2026 revenue hits record on AI chip demand) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 82 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 27636) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-10-09]

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S2	AAPL	▲ long	2	337.53	340.09	+5.12	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
AAPL S2	+1.19%	-0.35%	Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out, with AAPL rising ~0.76% from entry to exit and the worst drawdown while open only -0.35%. (Whether a TSMC revenue beat is a sound basis for an AAPL long is a separate question the data here can't settle; the direction was right either way.) Timing: Fine — price was only +0.10% on the day and +0.11% in the prior 30 minutes at decision time, so the move had not already happened; the fill at 337.53 was ~0.12% above the referenced level, a minor slippage. Exit: Captured roughly two-thirds of what was available (+0.76% realized vs +1.19% best unrealized, ~$2.90 left on the table on 2 shares). The dominant factor is a correct signal with reasonable entry; the exit was adequate but not optimal, and there's no information here on what triggered it.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

AAPL S2

+1.19%

-0.35%

Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out, with AAPL rising ~0.76% from entry to exit and the worst drawdown while open only -0.35%. (Whether a TSMC revenue beat is a sound basis for an AAPL long is a separate question the data here can't settle; the direction was right either way.)

Timing: Fine — price was only +0.10% on the day and +0.11% in the prior 30 minutes at decision time, so the move had not already happened; the fill at 337.53 was ~0.12% above the referenced level, a minor slippage.

Exit: Captured roughly two-thirds of what was available (+0.76% realized vs +1.19% best unrealized, ~$2.90 left on the table on 2 shares). The dominant factor is a correct signal with reasonable entry; the exit was adequate but not optimal, and there's no information here on what triggered it.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.