overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla's EV Delivery Beat Is In, So What Happens Now?) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 78 long lost to mat 83 long (decision 28032) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-10-09]
Signal: Marginally right but effectively a non-event — TSLA closed the trade +0.16% above entry, yet the open-period range was skewed hard against the thesis (best +0.32%, worst -1.60%), so the "bullish" call didn't produce a bullish move; this is the dominant factor. Timing: The stock was already -1.00% on the day and flat over the prior 30m at decision time, and the headline itself frames the delivery beat as already priced ("is in, so what happens now?"), which suggests the catalyst was stale rather than FRESH — but the journal gives no timestamps for the article versus entry, so the data doesn't settle whether the move had already happened. Exit: Capture was fine relative to what was available — +0.16% realized against a +0.32% best, and it avoided the -1.60% drawdown; the exit roughly halved the small upside but there was little to capture in the first place.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
