verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (partnership: Google signs massive 3.6-GW power deal with Constellation Energy in US) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S2 short GOOGL mat 89 (new mat 73)] → close +0.10%
Signal: Right — GOOGL closed +0.88% above entry, so the predicted overnight drift direction held. Timing: Not pre-empted at the price level — entry was only +0.35% over the prior close (and the decision-time context showed just +0.25%, last 30m flat), so the move largely came after the fill; whether the news itself had already been priced in earlier isn't determinable from this data. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured essentially the full available upside (+0.88% realized vs. +0.92% best unrealized), despite a -1.20% adverse excursion mid-hold that the strategy rode through. The dominant factor is a correct directional call with a near-optimal exit; the only notable fact is that the path was volatile (the trade was underwater by more than it ultimately gained at one point).
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
