🚨 Alert #6704 Tue Oct-06 18:00:05
Tesla deliveries top forecasts as European sales recover
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSLA (earnings: Tesla deliveries top forecasts as European sales recover) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S3 long TSLA exiting 2026-10-06] → close -0.23% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (earnings: Tesla deliveries top forecasts as European sales recover) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSLA | ▲ long | 2 | 380.47 | 378.13 | -4.68 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S4 | +2.30% | -1.56% | Signal: Wrong. The rationale predicted continued upward drift on the deliveries beat, but TSLA finished the next session at 378.13 — below both the 380.47 entry and the 378.49 prior close — so the direction was wrong even net of the entry premium; a fill at the prior close would still have lost. Timing: The news-driven move was already partly in by decision time (+0.72% from prior close), and the fill at 380.47 (+0.52%) locked in a long after that pop rather than ahead of it; the -0.61% realized loss is roughly that entry premium plus a small fade. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit gave back everything — the trade saw +2.30% (~+17 USD on this size) and -1.56% while open and closed near the middle at -4.68 USD. The dominant factor is the failed signal (post-news drift didn't materialize); the fixed exit merely declined to capture the intraday spike that the rule was never designed to take. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.