overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (earnings: Broadcom delivers strong earnings view as CEO touts growth with AI labs) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+3.65% since close, 464m after decision), order not placed]
Signal was right: the bullish call on the earnings beat paid off, with the stock rising from a 365.4 entry to a 375.71 exit (+2.82%, +$20.62 on 2 shares). Timing was good — at decision time AVGO was only +0.80% off the prior close (and -0.10% over the last 30m), so the move had not already run; the fill at 365.4 was about 0.8% above the 362.60 reference, which is a modest slip rather than a chase, and the worst unrealized was only -0.36%. Exit captured most but not all of what was available: the +2.82% realized versus +4.21% best unrealized means roughly a third of the peak gain was given back, but the dominant factor here is simply a correct signal with clean timing — the exit shortfall is secondary. The data doesn't show whether the exit was a rule-triggered stop/trail or a time stop, so the cause of the giveback can't be settled from this journal entry.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
