kingfisher — alert #6578

🚨 Alert #6578 Tue Oct-06 13:10:34

World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high

rocketnews.com · Tue Oct-06 12:06:40 published · Tue Oct-06 13:10:34 alerted · alerted 1h 3m after publish · read at rocketnews.com ↗ · earnings · mat 80

World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi	intraday px
primary TSM	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.04%	-0.08%	481.64	487.00
peer NVDA	▲ bullish	REPRICING	+1.21%	+0.12%	239.12	242.48

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	NVDA	○ skip	—	verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-10-06] → close -0.93%
S4	TSM	● enter	▲ long	overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: World's largest contract chipmaker TSMC sees August revenue surge over 53% to record high)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	TSM	▲ long	2	484.80	482.45	-4.70	closed
S4	TSM	▲ long	2	482.84	473.29	-19.10	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
TSM S1	+0.05%	-0.65%	Signal: wrong — the bullish call on the TSMC record-revenue news did not play out; the stock drifted down from 484.8 to 482.45 and never rose more than +0.05% while the trade was open. Timing: the data doesn't settle whether the move had already happened — pre-entry drift was flat (-0.04% vs prev close, -0.08% last 30m), but note the entry fill at 484.8 was already ~0.26% below the 486.05 prev close used in the rationale, so the stock was slipping into the fill. Exit: the -4.70 USD loss (~-0.48%) sits between the +0.05% best and -0.65% worst unrealized, so the exit neither captured upside (there was essentially none) nor hit the floor; the dominant factor is simply a wrong-direction signal on a headline that produced no bullish move.
TSM S4	+0.24%	-2.38%	Signal (dominant): Wrong. The thesis was positive overnight drift on the record-revenue headline, but TSM fell ~2% from entry to the next close; the best it ever showed was +0.24%, so the predicted direction simply didn't materialize. Timing: The data doesn't show a prior run-up — at decision time the stock was flat vs. the previous close (-0.04%) — so the move hadn't "already happened" in the usual sense. However, the fill at 482.84 was ~0.66% below the ~485.85 decision-time price, meaning the stock was already sliding into the close between decision and fill; whether the revenue news had been out for hours or days (and thus priced in) isn't determinable from this material. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit realized -1.98%, close to the -2.38% worst unrealized and far from the +0.24% best; with only +0.24% ever available, the exit rule left little on the table — the loss is a signal failure, not an exit failure.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

TSM S1

+0.05%

-0.65%

Signal: wrong — the bullish call on the TSMC record-revenue news did not play out; the stock drifted down from 484.8 to 482.45 and never rose more than +0.05% while the trade was open. Timing: the data doesn't settle whether the move had already happened — pre-entry drift was flat (-0.04% vs prev close, -0.08% last 30m), but note the entry fill at 484.8 was already ~0.26% below the 486.05 prev close used in the rationale, so the stock was slipping into the fill. Exit: the -4.70 USD loss (~-0.48%) sits between the +0.05% best and -0.65% worst unrealized, so the exit neither captured upside (there was essentially none) nor hit the floor; the dominant factor is simply a wrong-direction signal on a headline that produced no bullish move.

TSM S4

+0.24%

-2.38%

Signal (dominant): Wrong. The thesis was positive overnight drift on the record-revenue headline, but TSM fell ~2% from entry to the next close; the best it ever showed was +0.24%, so the predicted direction simply didn't materialize.

Timing: The data doesn't show a prior run-up — at decision time the stock was flat vs. the previous close (-0.04%) — so the move hadn't "already happened" in the usual sense. However, the fill at 482.84 was ~0.66% below the ~485.85 decision-time price, meaning the stock was already sliding into the close between decision and fill; whether the revenue news had been out for hours or days (and thus priced in) isn't determinable from this material.

Exit: The mechanical next-close exit realized -1.98%, close to the -2.38% worst unrealized and far from the +0.24% best; with only +0.24% ever available, the exit rule left little on the table — the loss is a signal failure, not an exit failure.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.