verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: Micron Posts Record $54B Quarter, Locks Hyperscalers Into $100B Memory Contracts) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long MU exiting 2026-10-01] → close +1.70%
overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Micron Posts Record $54B Quarter, Locks Hyperscalers Into $100B Memory Contracts) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 90 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 25172) for S4 MU exiting 2026-10-02]
Signal: Direction was right — AMZN fell ~0.56% from entry to exit, though the rationale's link (Micron's record quarter and hyperscaler memory contracts → bearish Amazon) is a second-order inference the data here can't validate as the actual driver. Timing: The bearish move had not already happened at entry; price was flat vs. prev close (+0.09%) and had actually risen +0.78% in the prior 30m, so the short was entered near a local high rather than chasing a drop. Exit: Near-optimal — the realized +0.56% essentially matches the +0.58% best unrealized, with only -0.19% adverse excursion, so nothing meaningful was left on the table. Dominant factor: correct direction with a well-timed exit; the only open question is whether the thesis or unrelated intraday noise produced a sub-1% move.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
