🚨 Alert #627 Thu Jul-23 18:40:53
ASML reported second-quarter earnings that significantly exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driven by sustained demand from the AI boom.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.13% | -0.26% | 1769.46 | 1845.06 | |
| TSLA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -14.24% | -0.62% | 316.17 | 351.27 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -6.58% | -0.12% | 317.18 | 327.20 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -4.27% | -0.25% | 233.05 | 240.93 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -3.57% | +0.54% | 527.16 | 557.20 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.32% | -0.19% | 207.02 | 211.05 | |
| counterparty TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.90% | +0.03% | 413.20 | 422.67 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy ASML (earnings: ASML reported second-quarter earnings that significantly exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driven by sustained demand from the AI boom.) |
| S2 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy TSM (earnings: ASML reported second-quarter earnings that significantly exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driven by sustained demand from the AI boom.) |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.32% · Δ 30m -0.19% · px 209.26 (prev 212.06) → close -0.46% |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML reported second-quarter earnings that significantly exceeded Wall Street forecasts, driven by sustained demand from the AI boom.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1797.11 | 1793.86 | -3.25 | closed |
| S2 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 416.79 | 414.22 | -5.14 | closed |
| S4 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1794.12 | 1751.50 | -42.62 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S1 | +0.31% | -0.51% | Comparison: The entry chased a widely-reported earnings beat labeled "FRESH," but price action (+0.31% max, -0.51% min) shows the news was already fully priced in — the trade never had real upside and closed flat-to-negative. Classic case of buying after the market absorbed the catalyst. Improvement: Tighten the FRESH verdict to require the entry occur within a defined window of the news release (e.g., <2 hours) or add a confirmation filter that the stock hasn't already gapped/run on the headline — if price moved >2% since publication, downgrade the verdict to STALE and skip the trade. |
| TSM S2 | +0.05% | -0.83% | Entry vs. outcome: The entry was a sympathy trade — buying TSM on ASML's beat — and it never worked: max unrealized gain was a negligible +0.05%, meaning the ASML news was almost certainly already priced into TSM by entry. The trade drifted straight to a small loss, which is the classic signature of buying a second-order name after the market has digested the catalyst. Improvement: Don't grant a FRESH verdict when the catalyst ticker differs from the traded ticker; either require the news to be about the traded symbol directly, or add a confirmation gate for sympathy plays (e.g., only enter if the traded name is up less than ~0.5% since the news but showing positive intraday momentum). Trading correlated names on already-public earnings beats without a staleness/priced-in check is just paying the spread for no edge. |
| ASML S4 | +3.03% | -2.93% | Comparison: The entry bet on positive overnight drift after a headline earnings beat, but the trade lost 2.4% — a classic case of "good earnings, bad reaction" (likely guidance or valuation concerns priced in, which the rationale ignored). The +3.03% peak shows the drift thesis briefly worked, but holding blindly to next close gave it all back and more. Improvement: Don't trade the earnings headline alone — require confirmation from the actual post-announcement price reaction (e.g., only enter if the stock is up in after-hours/pre-market), or add a trailing exit that locks gains once unrealized P&L exceeds ~+2%, since the fixed close-to-close exit converted a winner into a full loser. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.