verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSLA (other: Analyst recommendations: Apple, Walt Disney, Nvidia, Tesla, Fair Isaac...) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short TSLA mat 82 (new mat 71)] → close +1.03%
The direction call was marginally right — TSLA closed 0.09% above the fill — but the basis (a generic "analyst recommendations" roundup) carries no specific catalyst, so this is closer to coin-flip overnight drift than a confirmed signal. Timing is muddied by a fill/decision gap: the decision-time price was roughly 350.5 (prev close 352.90, −0.67%), yet the fill printed at 354.17, about +1% higher, meaning a chunk of the move happened between decision and execution and is not captured in the data here. The dominant factor is the exit: the position was up +1.43% at its best and only −0.17% at worst, but the mechanical next-close exit let nearly all of that evaporate, realizing +0.64 USD (+0.09%) out of roughly +10 USD that was available.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
