🚨 Alert #5997 Wed Sep-30 13:10:35
Micron reports earnings, PCE estimates and ADP employment report: What to Watch
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: Micron reports earnings, PCE estimates and ADP employment report: What to Watch) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | MU | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Micron reports earnings, PCE estimates and ADP employment report: What to Watch) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ▲ long | 1 | 1075.67 | 1063.59 | -12.08 | closed |
| S4 | MU | ▲ long | 1 | 1064.04 | 1095.17 | +31.13 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU S1 | +0.50% | -1.03% | Signal: Wrong. The rationale was bullish off a "what to watch" preview of Micron earnings (not a reported result), and the stock fell after entry, never getting more than +0.50% ahead and finishing -1.12% below the fill; the data here doesn't show whether earnings actually printed or how, so the thesis itself can't be graded, only its direction. Timing: The move hadn't happened at decision time (+0.11% vs. prev close), but the fill at 1075.67 was ~+1.0% above prev close, meaning the price ran ~0.9% between decision and entry and the trade bought the top of that pop. Exit: Captured nothing — the -12.08 USD (-1.12%) is at or slightly beyond the worst unrealized (-1.03%), so the exit was at the low of the trade's range, not a partial give-back from the +0.50% high. Dominant factor: a wrong-direction signal, made worse by ~0.9% of adverse slippage between decision and fill. |
| MU S4 | +2.94% | -3.62% | Signal: Direction was right — long MU through earnings, and the stock closed +2.93% from entry (1064.04 → 1095.17), though the -3.62% worst unrealized shows the path was a two-sided earnings swing, not a steady "drift," so the win looks like a correct side of a coin-flip event rather than evidence of a drift edge. Timing: The move had not happened by entry — the decision-time context was flat (+0.11% vs. prev close, -0.21% last 30m) and the fill (1064.04) was slightly below the prior close of 1065.08, so the entry preceded the catalyst; the journal doesn't say whether the gain came in the overnight gap or during the next session, so that split can't be settled here. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured essentially everything available (+2.93% realized vs. +2.94% best unrealized), so exit is not a factor. The dominant factor is signal direction on an earnings binary — the trade got the side right and the rule happened to exit at the high. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.