🚨 Alert #5980 Tue Sep-29 20:40:18
What Is The One Risk Every Google Stock Investor Should Know?
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (guidance: What Is The One Risk Every Google Stock Investor Should Know?) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S3 short GOOGL exiting 2026-09-29] → close +0.14% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (guidance: What Is The One Risk Every Google Stock Investor Should Know?) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 341.23 | 342.22 | -1.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S4 | +3.36% | -3.25% | Signal: Wrong, though marginally — GOOGL closed the next day at 342.22, up 0.29% from the 341.23 entry, so the short lost; the article title ("one risk every investor should know") is too vague to judge whether it actually implied a bearish overnight thesis, and the data here doesn't settle whether the signal had any substance beyond the headline. Timing: The stock was already down 0.58% from the prior close at decision time, so part of whatever bearish move existed was consumed before entry; relative to the previous close of 342.75 the next close was slightly lower (-0.15%), meaning the direction versus prev close was nominally right but the entry gave that edge away. Exit (dominant factor): The fixed next-close exit is what defined this outcome — the position saw +3.36% unrealized (roughly $23 on 2 shares) and -3.25% at the extremes, and the mechanical close realized -$1.98, capturing essentially none of the available favorable move while sitting through a swing that was over 10× the realized loss in either direction. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.