verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (m&a: AMD vs. Nvidia: Which Chip Giant Looks Stronger After Their Latest Acquisitions?) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 90 ties incumbent S1 short AMD, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.20%
verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (m&a: AMD vs. Nvidia: Which Chip Giant Looks Stronger After Their Latest Acquisitions?) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S3 short NVDA exiting 2026-09-29] → close -0.23%
Signal was right: the overnight-drift long gained +0.99% (605.8 → 611.81), and with the stock slightly red at decision time (-0.19% vs. prev close, -0.45% last 30m) the move had not already happened by entry — the fill was even below the prior close. The fixed next-close exit captured about three-quarters of the +1.33% best unrealized and never sat far from the -0.92% worst, so exit execution was reasonable rather than the driver of the result. Dominant factor: correct direction on a generic overnight drift; note the cited article is a comparative "which looks stronger" piece rather than a discrete M&A catalyst, and nothing here settles whether the news itself, as opposed to ordinary drift, produced the move.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
