overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (m&a: NVIDIA has agreed to acquire AI model platform Hugging Face for $13 billion to secure its ecosystem against competitors developing custom silicon.)
Signal: Right — the long drifted up +0.40% (entry 224.56 → exit 225.46), consistent with the predicted overnight direction. Timing: The move had not already happened by entry; the stock was down -1.61% from prior close at decision time, so the entry caught the drift rather than chasing it (whether the M&A news itself was already priced in can't be determined from this data). Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured +0.40% of a +0.89% peak — roughly half the available upside was given back, which is the dominant factor here: correct signal, adequate timing, but the fixed exit left about as much on the table as it banked.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
