🚨 Alert #5388 Thu Sep-24 14:10:52
The US and China have agreed to extend their trade truce until January 10, reducing immediate geopolitical risks for semiconductor supply chains and tech exports.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.22% | +0.28% | 440.01 | 452.13 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.43% | +0.49% | 596.40 | 630.36 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.22% | -0.04% | 221.60 | 224.52 | |
| AMZN | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.14% | -0.03% | 245.81 | 250.12 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.12% | +0.54% | 347.08 | 351.31 | |
| META | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.98% | +0.99% | 726.60 | 779.36 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.75% | -0.01% | 192.33 | 200.39 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.47% | +0.26% | 491.62 | 499.00 | |
| GOOGL | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.11% | +0.57% | 334.09 | 342.76 | |
| AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.09% | -0.17% | 334.97 | 338.49 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | primary long contradicts tape: TSM -1.22% since prev close → close +2.16% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long contradicts tape: NVDA -1.22% since prev close → close +0.80% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: The US and China have agreed to extend their trade truce until January 10, reducing immediate geopolitical risks for semiconductor supply chains and tech exports.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 450.67 | 451.06 | +0.78 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +1.26% | -0.35% | Signal: Directionally right — TSM did drift up while the position was open (peaking +1.26%), consistent with the truce-relief thesis. Timing: This is the dominant problem. The decision-time price was ~441.3 (prev close 446.71, down -1.22%), but the fill came at 450.67 — roughly 2% higher — meaning most of the anticipated relief move happened between decision and entry, leaving little drift to capture. Exit: The close-to-close exit locked in +0.09% (+$0.78) against a best unrealized of +1.26%, so most of the available move was given back by the mechanical exit; whether an earlier exit was feasible under the strategy's rules isn't determinable from this data. Bluntly: a correct signal mostly consumed by a late/gapped entry fill. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.