Sun Oct-18 16:02:05
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🚨 Alert #5175 Tue Sep-22 13:03:44
TSMC Spent $15.59 Billion on CapEx in a Single Quarter, 42% More Than the Quarter Before. Here's What It Means For the Stock.
TSMC reported record gross margins of 68% and a 42% quarter-over-quarter increase in capital expenditure to $15.59 billion, while guiding for slight margin dilution due to 2nm process ramping.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.94% | +0.03% | 439.81 | 452.47 | |
| AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.71% | -0.33% | 604.51 | 624.04 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.12% | -0.23% | 190.47 | 198.82 | |
| MU | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.10% | -0.08% | 1028.49 | 1097.63 | |
| ASML | · unclear | FRESH | -0.70% | -0.22% | 1695.21 | 1748.66 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.26% | 0.00% | 225.70 | 229.84 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | +0.06% | -0.17% | 359.95 | 366.25 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported record gross margins of 68% and a 42% quarter-over-quarter increase in capital expenditure to $15.59 billion, while guiding for slight margin dilution due to 2nm process ramping.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.89% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported record gross margins of 68% and a 42% quarter-over-quarter increase in capital expenditure to $15.59 billion, while guiding for slight margin dilution due to 2nm process ramping.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 20868) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-23] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 444.21 | 451.99 | +15.56 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +1.90% | -0.15% | Signal: Right — the bullish call played out, with TSM rising ~1.75% from entry and barely dipping (worst -0.15%). Timing: Entry was not chasing; the stock was actually down 0.94% from prior close at decision time, so the move happened after entry, consistent with the "FRESH" verdict. Exit: Near-optimal — realized +1.75% against a best unrealized of +1.90%, capturing essentially all that was available. Dominant factor: a correct directional signal, cleanly timed and well-exited; this trade worked on all three dimensions. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.