verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (guidance: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast that the company will double its chip sales volume next year driven by strong global AI demand.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-09-18] → close +0.47%
verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (guidance: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast that the company will double its chip sales volume next year driven by strong global AI demand.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long AMD exiting 2026-09-18] → close +1.71%
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (guidance: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast that the company will double its chip sales volume next year driven by strong global AI demand.)
Signal: right. NVDA rose after entry and the trade gained +2.40%, consistent with the bullish guidance rationale. Timing: partly eroded — at decision time the stock was only +0.08% over the prior close (219.34), but the fill came at 221.9, ~1.2% higher, so a meaningful chunk of the drift occurred between decision and fill; the data here doesn't show whether that was overnight gap or execution lag. Exit: good capture — the +2.40% realized is close to the +2.94% best unrealized, with minimal drawdown (-0.24%).
Dominant factor: a correct directional signal, executed well enough on exit that the entry slippage only trimmed, not killed, the trade.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
