Sun Oct-18 15:07:19
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🚨 Alert #4984 Fri Sep-18 14:50:56
AI: the hyperscalers' hidden bill tops 3.5 trillion dollars
A report reveals that nine major tech giants have over $3.5 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments, primarily for future semiconductor and data center equipment purchases.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.68% | -0.56% | 491.83 | 497.90 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +4.28% | +3.32% | 348.49 | 362.28 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.23% | -0.21% | 348.76 | 357.91 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.07% | -1.83% | 665.16 | 693.51 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.85% | +0.50% | 542.18 | 559.41 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.80% | +0.58% | 1627.00 | 1679.92 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.60% | +0.71% | 428.06 | 434.50 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.45% | +0.20% | 251.18 | 255.12 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.04% | +0.06% | 218.76 | 222.58 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short MSFT (other: A report reveals that nine major tech giants have over $3.5 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments, primarily for future semiconductor and data center equipment purchases.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long MSFT, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.11% |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.51% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short MSFT at close, exit next close (other: A report reveals that nine major tech giants have over $3.5 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments, primarily for future semiconductor and data center equipment purchases.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 long (decision 20060) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-09-21] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.