

TSMC reported a record 53.3% year-over-year surge in August revenue driven by robust demand for AI semiconductors.
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.18% | -0.07% | 428.06 | 434.50 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.94% | -0.02% | 979.18 | 1017.75 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.70% | -0.15% | 348.49 | 362.28 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.44% | +0.02% | 176.12 | 190.10 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.36% | -0.08% | 542.18 | 559.41 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.25% | -0.12% | 218.76 | 222.58 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.11% | +0.04% | 1627.00 | 1679.92 |
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a record 53.3% year-over-year surge in August revenue driven by robust demand for AI semiconductors.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.29% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a record 53.3% year-over-year surge in August revenue driven by robust demand for AI semiconductors.) |
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 430.79 | 432.98 | +4.38 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 433.25 | 444.91 | +23.32 | closed |
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.88% | -0.39% | Signal: correct. The bullish call played out — price rose from 430.79 to a peak of +0.88% unrealized, closing the trade +0.51%. Timing: reasonable on the intraday evidence — price was flat versus prior close (-0.18%) at decision time, so the move hadn't already run intraday; whether the August revenue news was already priced in over prior sessions can't be determined from this data. Exit: captured most of what was available — +0.51% realized against +0.88% best and -0.39% worst, i.e. roughly 60% of the peak move with limited drawdown exposure. Dominant factor: a correct signal, competently executed — no major flaw in this trade; the only leakage was giving back ~0.37% from the unrealized high at exit. |
| TSM S4 | +2.80% | -4.96% | Signal: right. The long call on the AI-revenue news paid off — price rose ~2.7% from entry to exit. Timing: mostly fine — at decision time the stock was flat vs. prior close (-0.18%), so the move hadn't already run, though the fill at 433.25 was ~0.7% above the prior close, giving away a slice of the move before entry. Exit: near-optimal — +2.69% realized against a best unrealized of +2.80%, so almost the entire available gain was captured; the dominant factor here is simply a correct signal with a well-timed exit. One caveat: the -4.96% worst unrealized is hard to square with a single overnight hold, and the data here doesn't settle whether the position was held longer than the stated one-day horizon. |