🚨 Alert #4924 Thu Sep-17 18:10:29
ASML reported a strong Q2 2026 with revenue up 21.3% year-over-year and raised full-year guidance to €43-45 billion, driven by surging demand for memory lithography systems.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long ASML (earnings: ASML reported a strong Q2 2026 with revenue up 21.3% year-over-year and raised full-year guidance to €43-45 billion, driven by surging demand for memory lithography systems.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for TSM → close +0.25% |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML reported a strong Q2 2026 with revenue up 21.3% year-over-year and raised full-year guidance to €43-45 billion, driven by surging demand for memory lithography systems.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1618.24 | 1630.40 | +12.16 | closed |
| S4 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1630.89 | 1677.29 | +46.40 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S1 | +0.78% | -0.06% | Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out, with the trade never going more than -0.06% underwater. Timing: Partly late — about +1% of the earnings move had already occurred by entry (fill 1618.24 vs prev close 1602.22), though the last-30m read of +0.06% suggests the pop had stalled rather than being chased mid-spike; whether more upside existed before entry isn't determinable from this data. Exit: Near-optimal — the +0.75% realized gain captured almost all of the +0.78% best unrealized. Dominant factor: a correct signal executed cleanly; the only cost was the ~1% of the move already priced in before entry. |
| ASML S4 | +2.94% | -0.52% | Signal: Right — the post-earnings long drifted up another +2.85% from entry to exit. Timing: Some of the move was already gone — the stock was +0.98% at decision time and the fill (1630.89) was ~1.8% above prev close, so entry paid up beyond the known context — but plenty of drift remained. Exit: Near-optimal — +2.85% realized against a +2.94% best unrealized, with only -0.52% adverse excursion. Dominant factor: a correct signal with an exit that captured essentially everything available; the only leakage was the slippage/gap between decision-time price and the fill. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.